Subsurface Decision Analysis

Everyone makes decisions, but few people think about how they do it. Yet, psychological research shows that we are prone to many different errors of thought that degrade our decision making ability. In this course we will discuss the principles and fundamental concepts for the normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. We will develop a language, set of theories, and tools to transform complex decisions into ones where the course of action is clear. The course follows the typical chain of considerations that attends most exploration and development projects. The skills learnt will be applicable to exploration and production decisions and from relatively small investments, such as whether or not to core a well, to major field development or exploration program decisions.

Ingress: This course provides detailed knowledge of key principles and methods for high-quality and consistent decision-making related to subsurface challenges.
Knowledge: Students should have a thorough understanding of essential elements of quantitative decision analysis with a particular focus on decision-making under uncertainty. Students should also be able to recognize and account for the human biases and errors that most often affect decision-making.
Skills: Be able to use the most important elements in decision analysis relevant to subsurface decision-making in the face of uncertainty.
General competence: Students should understand fundamental logical principles and analyses and be able to communicate their choices and recommendations clearly.

Lectures and compulsory exercises amounting to the final grade in the course. There are additional compulsory exercises not amounting to the final grade, conducted during the semester. The lectures are in English.