Geohazards and Risk

The course will include:

1. terminology used in risk assessment
2. a brief insight into various geohazards landslide types, debris flow, rock fall
3. a brief introduction of soil mechanics and slope stability analysis
4. identification of sources and types of uncertainties in problems related to geohazards
5. discussion of the potential benefits of a probabilistic compared to a deterministic approach
6. review relevant statistical and probabilistic theories needed to develop the methodologies and to interpret the results of the probabilistic analyses
7. application of probabilistic analysis as applied to geotechnical analysis, such as First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), event tree and logic tree construction, reliability of "systems"
8. methods for prevention and mitigation of geohazards
9. discussion on risk reduction strategies e.g., F-N diagram
10. spatial variability and its impact
11. basic knowledge of consultation
12. utility function for optimalization and sustainability consideration

Knowledge

This course is about dealing with uncertainties in geotechnics and geohazards: Its better to be probably right than exactly wrong! The candidate should have knowledge of:

• Slope stability analysis in geotechnical context
• How to characterize and model uncertainties in geotechnical parameters (soils and rocks), quantify variability in soil profiles, loading and resistance factors as well as the calculation methods
• Describing and formulating a geotechnical problem using a reliability approach
• Incorporating uncertainties in conventional geotechnical analyses
• Performing hazards related to slope or foundation failures, avalanches and earthquakes
• Considering risk acceptance/tolerance criteria
• Considering risk management and reduction measures (reliability based decision-making and mitigation).

Skills

The candidate can:

• Identify sources of uncertainties in a given geotechnical problem, define relevant and critical failure modes or unwanted events
• Assess probability of occurrence
• Plan and perform reliability/risk analyses
• Calculate/predict consequences
• Make optimized decisions based on reliability analyses
• Recommend actions for risk reduction and/or risk mitigation and contribute to sustainable solutions.
• Code algorithms for modelling automation and implementation of optimization

General competence

The candidate can:

• Make sound engineering judgments with a special focus on numerical simulations in geomechanics
• Develop sustainable solutions for our built environment
• Compose clear presentation
• Coding
• Work in teams.

Digital competence

The candidate can:

• Evaluate statistical features (mean, variance, probabilistic distribution and spatial correlation) of data
• Implement automation of algorithms through coding
• Implement optimization to achieve multiple goals
• Establish reliability analysis models through coding

Sustainable competence

The candidate can:

• Evaluate hazard, consequence and risk to improve safety in geotechnics and geohazards
• Establish simplified utility functions to facilitate decision-makings to strike a balance among rivaling targets: safety (risk), investment, carbon emission
• Implement sensitivity analysis to identify the most pronounced factors

Lecture, tutorials, term project, assignments.

Term project:

involves a role playing game which the candidate is given a role as consultant or government staff to evaluate different designs with given data. They are asked to extract statistical features of these data, use correct reliability methods to assess the risks of each design and probably give even more cutting edge designs. They will need to use coding to script most process so they run automatically and give quick result at once. At the end of the day, an optimized design should be provided to achieve safety, economy and environmental goals. All groups will deliver a report and give a presentation to their clients (examiners), to ensure effective risk communication.